The numbers……………

I came to my bus stop today fully dressed up in Monday dress code. I was a lil earlier than usual, there was a kid standing next to me waiting for his school bus. Honestly I could not find but a few differences between him and me. He was wearing his school tie and I was wearing mine, he was in his uniform, I was wearing something pertaining to our dress code, he was carrying his lunch and books bag, I was carrying mine, he was waiting for his bus early in the morning and so was I.

The only notable difference was that he was happy to go to school, he was enjoying his wait for his school bus with his dad whereas ……………………………..

A few meters this side and few meters that side two more such groups similar to mine were also eyeing the small kid with a lot of envy…...After all India has more than one software biggie….

If one can step out of the circle and start looking at the whole process of the s/w industry then it baffles one and all. The growth of the industry has been so alarming that one shudders to think on what would be the result if some thing like the US economic slump of 2001 repeats itself what with the US economy on a steady decline. The four biggies of the Indian market between themselves employ more than about 3 lakh personnel all aspiring to make it big, all aspiring to fly to onsite one day, get a full cycle of SDLC experience, come back to offshore to settle down with a flat inside the city and a lead position in the company.

Only thing is that all of us, me inclusive, think about it only in one perspective. Thinking about it from another angle, for every employee that the biggies had in 2001 there are more than 5 employees now. If 1000 people went onsite every year in 2001 is it possible to sustain the same growth and send 5000 people onsite every year now? If 1000 people were promoted per cycle in a business unit in 2001 is it possible to promote 5000 people now in 2007 for every cycle. And what would the people who are already at onsite do if one has to keep sending more and more, what would the current people as leads do if more and more people become leads just by the virtue of experience and there are no projects to work on? No wonder the US consulate received twice as many Visa applications as is the maximum cap set by the US govt.

And all this when the industry is in its fantastic best, what if the industry faces a slump? Companies were not able to manage the lesser number of people that they employed in 2001 and had to take refuge in layoffs, terminations etc. How can one expect these to manage 5 times the same number now? What are we staring at then? Mass terminations? One gets diplomatic answers in town hall meetings and NDTV profit interviews that “We don’t want to be left answerable to about 1 lakh families, so we know what we are doing”. At least I cant think of similar paying circumstances if market focus shifts to elsewhere.

I was standing at the Guindy bus stop waiting for my bus with a few others of my company when a big family with two moms dragging their kids getting lil help from their hubbies came along and asked us “Is this the MTC bus stand? Do Madipakkam busses stop here?” This may sound hilarious but there is more to it than just the lighter side.

If any of the new aspirants read this then "Set ur expectations accordingly guys, U don’t wanna end up depressed later, do ya ?"